Let’s get into the key macro trends with a backdrop of the US Presidents elections through a recently published interview of Darious Dale of, 42 Macro which is an independent research boutique delivering insights into macro risk management to institutional investors, corporations, and financial advisors globally.
Irrespective of which candidate comes in as US president next week- there is going to be a sharp deterioration in the sovereign fiscal balance to GDP ratio and a sharp acceleration in the sovereign debt to GDP ratio.
Populism is the highest probability outcome. Republicans have in the past championed corporations and democrats have championed the cause of the socially deprived. However, recently, Trump has taken up the stance for the socially deprived as well and his closeness to corporate America is a known fact with a preference towards lowering of corporate tax rates.
Secular inflation is the trend of the decade that will cause monetary debasement and cause significant acceleration in the money supply – thereby inflating financial assets.
Noteworthy to see is that Global Liquidity is on the rise in all major economies of the world and the pace of it will accelerate in months to come. The next 4-6 months would be good for risk assets as well as Gold. Expecting global assets refinancing risk coming up in Q2 2025.
The most important takeaway is that the Fed wants a soft landing and it will do everything in its power to have one”.
Hope, you added on a perspective from the macro insights shared above. In case you wish to discuss the macros in greater length or would like to have your queries addressed over the investments made through us, please feel free to reach out and we would be happy to assist!
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