In Investing it is very important to cut down the noise and focus on the right things.
That is the exact reason why we read between the lines in formal communications when it happens by various Fund Houses.
Let us deep dive on what is being communicated by ICICI AMC on Valuations and Strategy in their July 2024 series.
“Our ‘VCTS’ framework (Valuations, Cycle, Trigger, Sentiments) is currently indicating that market valuations are not cheap, but India’s long-term story remains in-tact.”
Our Interpretation-The long term story of India remains attractive. In totality valuations are not mouth watering in current market scenarios, but they are also not that high that one starts preferring other asset classes over equities. So the current scenario warrants at least some exposure towards equities -level of exposure one would be comfortable within his/her risk profile of being conservative- balanced or aggressive investor.
“Future market triggers which may cause volatility include geopolitical tensions, mild global slowdown, and global interest rate trajectory.”
Our Interpretation- The “known” risks in the market in the foreseeable future may come from
- Geopolitical Escalations.
- Global Growth hiccups.
- Global interest rates are taking an unexpected trajectory.
As investors we need to keep a hawk eye on how these things materialise and do not go out of hand on these factors. Till the time above factors are showing signs of improvement or even stabilising – we are home .
“The overall sentiments remain neutral.”
Our Interpretation-Sentiments play a very important role in determining the overall stage at which the market cycle has reached.
At the moment we are in a neutral zone and not in euphoric zones, which would have then signalled a high level of caution or even rebalancing of investments.
“FPIs were net buyers for the month after getting clarity over the political landscape and DIIs* maintained their 11-month buying spree”
Our Interpretation- The political uncertainty has got cleared out with conclusion of general elections and formation and continuation of running government. In Cash markets FIIs bought equities worth 2000 crores in June. In April 2024 FIIs sold equities worth 35700 crores and in May 2024 they sold 42100 crores of equities. Pre-election FIIs were being nervous which is depicted in their selling. Post elections results and formation of Govt they have had their nerves calmed down (so far).
Domestic investors have been buying continuously from the last 11 months and not even a single month of selling has been seen in the last 11 months since August 2023.
This is the outcome of current strong SIP flow and Indian investors reckoning the power of equities.
What we are currently witnessing at ground level with our clients is the strong trend where they are engaging with us for moving funds out of their Fixed Yield instruments into Mutual Funds. Such is the strong current in Market flows.
“Based on our ‘VCTS’ framework, we recommend investing in equity schemes having flexible investment mandates coupled with Hybrid and Multi Asset allocation schemes that may help navigate market volatility and manage equity exposure basis market valuations.”
Our Interpretation- Broader mandated funds are preferred as investment choice in current scenario and point of time in markets.
The Fund manager of the chosen scheme should have sufficient mandate and space to move across market cap, sectors and asset classes to generate better risk adjusted returns.
In case you have any queries over the investments you have made through us , feel free to reach out to our team who have been interacting with you and we would be happy to assist.
Disclaimer- . MUTUAL FUND INVESTMENTS ARE SUBJECT TO MARKET RISKS, READ ALL SCHEME RELATED DOCUMENTS CAREFULLY BEFORE INVESTING.