Dear Reader
Lurking risks send investors into risk-off mode
There are various theories floating about on what went down in Indian markets over the past week that turned the sentiment so bearish.
Were foreign investors spooked by the renegotiated India and Mauritius double taxation avoidance agreement that would tax their investments through the latter country into India? For context, since April 11 (when this news broke), foreign investors have sold Indian shares of over Rs 20,000 crore till Thursday’s end of trade.
Or was it last weekend’s escalation by Iran of the conflict in West Asia when it rained fire on Israeli territory in response to an airstrike on its embassy in Syria?
Some even say market participants got nervous about the outcome of Indian elections which are underway? (yeah, right).
If you were a Batman and Christopher Nolan fan, this would sound like The Joker cooking up a new origin story for himself in the 2008 film–The Dark Knight. Market participants and analysts also seem to be coming up with various alternate reasons for why Indian markets turned extremely volatile last week.
So what exactly happened to markets in India? And what could happen going forward? Let’s get into it.
Uncertainty galore
There is way too much uncertainty in the world right now.
The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran saw Brent crude oil (India’s external crude benchmark) futures shoot up to above $90 early last week. This was in anticipation of a retaliation from Israel, which eventually came on Friday early morning. One doesn’t know if this conflict will escalate further, although both sides seem to want to de-escalate tensions.
The change in rules for FPIs investing through Mauritius into India came out of nowhere. India always wanted to plug this loophole which allowed investors based out of Mauritius to claim exemptions on their capital gains. But nobody anticipated the double taxation avoidance agreement would be rejigged so soon.
The election results theory in India seems fickle as most surveys predict a return to power of the incumbent regime, and most fund managers and market participants don’t see any risk here.
Another factor that Indian markets will have to contend with over the next few weeks is the Q4FY24 earnings season that is currently underway. IT services companies seem to be staring at a rapid slowdown in revenue growth in FY25, as indicated by TCS and Infosys.
IT services companies make up over 13% of the market capitalisation of the benchmark Nifty 50, right after financial services at 33.53%. So, if the outlook for IT companies turns sour, the impact on Nifty 50, and also the broader market, could be felt over the coming weeks.
In the midst of this, the Indian rupee is tottering as it tests new lows regularly. This is bound to upset India’s calculations as imports will get more expensive. This in turn could upset inflation expectations and delay any hopes of a rate cut in 2024.
Where do we go from here?
A piece of news that got buried over the past week was the IMF’s revision of global growth expectations in 2024 upwards to 3.2% (an increase of 0.10 percentage points) from its January estimate. This included an upgrade of India’s growth forecast for 2024 to 6.8% (vs 6.5% in January).
The US Federal Reserve has all but ruled out rate cuts this year due to stubborn inflation, but market participants are still pricing in cuts in September. This has a direct bearing on how the Reserve Bank of India will act (primarily to protect the rupee), despite economic growth expectations in India remaining robust.
Stock markets in India are currently in a no man’s land waiting to absorb globally and local news flow, with foreign investors doing their own thing. Indian investors rightly continue to show their faith in the SIP with net inflows rising to a new high of around Rs 19,300 crore in March 2024. These inflows are helping to put a cap on how much Indian markets will fall.
Indian investors are essentially buying on dips. Whether this will be a good strategy with risks lurking around remains to be seen over the next few weeks.